Understanding the treatment benefit of hyperimmune anti-influenza intravenous immunoglobulin (Flu-IVIG) for severe human influenza.

BACKGROUNDAntibody-based therapies for respiratory viruses are of increasing importance. The INSIGHT 006 trial administered anti-influenza hyperimmune intravenous immunoglobulin (Flu-IVIG) to patients hospitalized with influenza. Flu-IVIG treatment improved outcomes in patients with influenza B but showed no benefit for influenza A.METHODSTo probe potential mechanisms of Flu-IVIG utility, sera collected from patients hospitalized with influenza A or B viruses (IAV or IBV) were analyzed for antibody isotype/subclass and Fcγ receptor (FcγR) binding by ELISA, bead-based multiplex, and NK cell activation assays.RESULTSInfluenza-specific FcγR-binding antibodies were elevated in Flu-IVIG-infused IBV- and IAV-infected patients. In IBV-infected participants (n = 62), increased IgG3 and FcγR binding were associated with more favorable outcomes. Flu-IVIG therapy also improved the odds of a more favorable outcome in patients with low levels of anti-IBV Fc-functional antibody. Higher FcγR-binding antibody was associated with less favorable outcomes in IAV-infected patients (n = 50), and Flu-IVIG worsened the odds of a favorable outcome in participants with low levels of anti-IAV Fc-functional antibody.CONCLUSIONThese detailed serological analyses provide insights into antibody features and mechanisms required for a successful humoral response against influenza, suggesting that IBV-specific, but not IAV-specific, antibodies with Fc-mediated functions may assist in improving influenza outcome. This work will inform development of improved influenza immunotherapies.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT02287467.FUNDINGFunding for this research was provided by subcontract 13XS134 under Leidos Biomedical Research Prime Contract HHSN261200800001E and HHSN261201500003I, NCI/NIAID.

Randomized Trial of Vaccines for Zaire Ebola Virus Disease.

BACKGROUND: Questions remain concerning the rapidity of immune responses and the durability and safety of vaccines used to prevent Zaire Ebola virus disease. METHODS: We conducted two randomized, placebo-controlled trials - one involving adults and one involving children - to evaluate the safety and immune responses of three vaccine regimens against Zaire Ebola virus disease: Ad26.ZEBOV followed by MVA-BN-Filo 56 days later (the Ad26-MVA group), rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP followed by placebo 56 days later (the rVSV group), and rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP followed by rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP 56 days later (the rVSV-booster group). The primary end point was antibody response at 12 months, defined as having both a 12-month antibody concentration of at least 200 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay units (EU) per milliliter and an increase from baseline in the antibody concentration by at least a factor of 4. RESULTS: A total of 1400 adults and 1401 children underwent randomization. Among both adults and children, the incidence of injection-site reactions and symptoms (e.g., feverishness and headache) was higher in the week after receipt of the primary and second or booster vaccinations than after receipt of placebo but not at later time points. These events were largely low-grade. At month 12, a total of 41% of adults (titer, 401 EU per milliliter) and 78% of children (titer, 828 EU per milliliter) had a response in the Ad26-MVA group; 76% (titer, 992 EU per milliliter) and 87% (titer, 1415 EU per milliliter), respectively, had a response in the rVSV group; 81% (titer, 1037 EU per milliliter) and 93% (titer, 1745 EU per milliliter), respectively, had a response in the rVSV-booster group; and 3% (titer, 93 EU per milliliter) and 4% (titer, 67 EU per milliliter), respectively, had a response in the placebo group (P<0.001 for all comparisons of vaccine with placebo). In both adults and children, antibody responses with vaccine differed from those with placebo beginning on day 14. CONCLUSIONS: No safety concerns were identified in this trial. With all three vaccine regimens, immune responses were seen from day 14 through month 12. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; PREVAC ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02876328; EudraCT numbers, 2017-001798-18 and 2017-001798-18/3rd; and Pan African Clinical Trials Registry number, PACTR201712002760250.).

The Association of Baseline Plasma SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid Antigen Level and Outcomes in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Levels of plasma SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) antigen may be an important biomarker in patients with COVID-19 and enhance our understanding of the pathogenesis of COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether levels of plasma antigen can predict short-term clinical outcomes and identify clinical and viral factors associated with plasma antigen levels in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of baseline plasma antigen level from 2540 participants enrolled in the TICO (Therapeutics for Inpatients With COVID-19) platform trial from August 2020 to November 2021, with additional data on day 5 outcome and time to discharge. SETTING: 114 centers in 10 countries. PARTICIPANTS: Adults hospitalized for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection with 12 days or less of symptoms. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline plasma viral N antigen level was measured at a central laboratory. Delta variant status was determined from baseline nasal swabs using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Associations between baseline patient characteristics and viral factors and baseline plasma antigen levels were assessed using both unadjusted and multivariable modeling. Association between elevated baseline antigen level of 1000 ng/L or greater and outcomes, including worsening of ordinal pulmonary scale at day 5 and time to hospital discharge, were evaluated using logistic regression and Fine-Gray regression models, respectively. RESULTS: Plasma antigen was below the level of quantification in 5% of participants at enrollment, and 1000 ng/L or greater in 57%. Baseline pulmonary severity of illness was strongly associated with plasma antigen level, with mean plasma antigen level 3.10-fold higher among those requiring noninvasive ventilation or high-flow nasal cannula compared with room air (95% CI, 2.22 to 4.34). Plasma antigen level was higher in those who lacked antispike antibodies (6.42 fold; CI, 5.37 to 7.66) and in those with the Delta variant (1.73 fold; CI, 1.41 to 2.13). Additional factors associated with higher baseline antigen level included male sex, shorter time since hospital admission, decreased days of remdesivir, and renal impairment. In contrast, race, ethnicity, body mass index, and immunocompromising conditions were not associated with plasma antigen levels. Plasma antigen level of 1000 ng/L or greater was associated with a markedly higher odds of worsened pulmonary status at day 5 (odds ratio, 5.06 [CI, 3.41 to 7.50]) and longer time to hospital discharge (median, 7 vs. 4 days; subhazard ratio, 0.51 [CI, 0.45 to 0.57]), with subhazard ratios similar across all levels of baseline pulmonary severity. LIMITATIONS: Plasma samples were drawn at enrollment, not hospital presentation. No point-of-care test to measure plasma antigen is currently available. CONCLUSION: Elevated plasma antigen is highly associated with both severity of pulmonary illness and clinically important patient outcomes. Multiple clinical and viral factors are associated with plasma antigen level at presentation. These data support a potential role of ongoing viral replication in the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 in hospitalized patients. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. government Operation Warp Speed and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Lessons from an international trial evaluating vaccination strategies for recovered inpatients with COVID-19 (VATICO).

The protection provided by natural versus hybrid immunity from COVID-19 is unclear. We reflect on the challenges from trying to conduct a randomized post-SARS-CoV-2 infection vaccination trial study with rapidly evolving scientific data, vaccination guidelines, varying international policies, difficulties with vaccine availability, vaccine hesitancy, and a constantly evolving virus.

Responses to a Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody for Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 According to Baseline Antibody and Antigen Levels : A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: In a randomized, placebo-controlled, clinical trial, bamlanivimab, a SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing monoclonal antibody, given in combination with remdesivir, did not improve outcomes among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 based on an early futility assessment. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the a priori hypothesis that bamlanivimab has greater benefit in patients without detectable levels of endogenous neutralizing antibody (nAb) at study entry than in those with antibodies, especially if viral levels are high. DESIGN: Randomized, placebo-controlled trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04501978). SETTING: Multicenter trial. PATIENTS: Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 without end-organ failure. INTERVENTION: Bamlanivimab (7000 mg) or placebo. MEASUREMENTS: Antibody, antigen, and viral RNA levels were centrally measured on stored specimens collected at baseline. Patients were followed for 90 days for sustained recovery (defined as discharge to home and remaining home for 14 consecutive days) and a composite safety outcome (death, serious adverse events, organ failure, or serious infections). RESULTS: Among 314 participants (163 receiving bamlanivimab and 151 placebo), the median time to sustained recovery was 19 days and did not differ between the bamlanivimab and placebo groups (subhazard ratio [sHR], 0.99 [95% CI, 0.79 to 1.22]; sHR > 1 favors bamlanivimab). At entry, 50% evidenced production of anti-spike nAbs; 50% had SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid plasma antigen levels of at least 1000 ng/L. Among those without and with nAbs at study entry, the sHRs were 1.24 (CI, 0.90 to 1.70) and 0.74 (CI, 0.54 to 1.00), respectively (nominal P for interaction = 0.018). The sHR (bamlanivimab vs. placebo) was also more than 1 for those with plasma antigen or nasal viral RNA levels above median level at entry and was greatest for those without antibodies and with elevated levels of antigen (sHR, 1.48 [CI, 0.99 to 2.23]) or viral RNA (sHR, 1.89 [CI, 1.23 to 2.91]). Hazard ratios for the composite safety outcome (<1 favors bamlanivimab) also differed by serostatus at entry: 0.67 (CI, 0.37 to 1.20) for those without and 1.79 (CI, 0.92 to 3.48) for those with nAbs. LIMITATION: Subgroup analysis of a trial prematurely stopped because of futility; small sample size; multiple subgroups analyzed. CONCLUSION: Efficacy and safety of bamlanivimab may differ depending on whether an endogenous nAb response has been mounted. The limited sample size of the study does not allow firm conclusions based on these findings, and further independent trials are required that assess other types of passive immune therapies in the same patient setting. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. government Operation Warp Speed and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Partnership for Research on Ebola VACcination (PREVAC): protocol of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2 clinical trial evaluating three vaccine strategies against Ebola in healthy volunteers in four West African countries.

INTRODUCTION: The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in 2014-2016 in West Africa was the largest on record and provided an opportunity for large clinical trials and accelerated efforts to develop an effective and safe preventative vaccine. Multiple questions regarding the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of EVD vaccines remain unanswered. To address these gaps in the evidence base, the Partnership for Research on Ebola Vaccines (PREVAC) trial was designed. This paper describes the design, methods, and baseline results of the PREVAC trial and discusses challenges that led to different protocol amendments. METHODS: This is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2 clinical trial of three vaccine strategies against the Ebola virus in healthy volunteers 1 year of age and above. The three vaccine strategies being studied are the rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP vaccine, with and without a booster dose at 56 days, and the Ad26.ZEBOV,MVA-FN-Filo vaccine regimen with Ad26.ZEBOV given as the first dose and the MVA-FN-Filo vaccination given 56 days later. There have been 4 versions of the protocol with those enrolled in Version 4.0 comprising the primary analysis cohort. The primary endpoint is based on the antibody titer against the Ebola virus surface glycoprotein measured 12 months following the final injection. RESULTS: From April 2017 to December 2018, a total of 5002 volunteers were screened and 4789 enrolled. Participants were enrolled at 6 sites in four countries (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Mali). Of the 4789 participants, 2560 (53%) were adults and 2229 (47%) were children. Those < 18 years of age included 549 (12%) aged 1 to 4 years, 750 (16%) 5 to 11 years, and 930 (19%) aged 12-17 years. At baseline, the median (25th, 75th percentile) antibody titer to Ebola virus glycoprotein for 1090 participants was 72 (50, 116) EU/mL. DISCUSSION: The PREVAC trial is evaluating-placebo-controlled-two promising Ebola candidate vaccines in advanced stages of development. The results will address unanswered questions related to short- and long-term safety and immunogenicity for three vaccine strategies in adults and children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02876328 . Registered on 23 August 2016.

A Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody for Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: LY-CoV555, a neutralizing monoclonal antibody, has been associated with a decrease in viral load and the frequency of hospitalizations or emergency department visits among outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Data are needed on the effect of this antibody in patients who are hospitalized with Covid-19. METHODS: In this platform trial of therapeutic agents, we randomly assigned hospitalized patients who had Covid-19 without end-organ failure in a 1:1 ratio to receive either LY-CoV555 or matching placebo. In addition, all the patients received high-quality supportive care as background therapy, including the antiviral drug remdesivir and, when indicated, supplemental oxygen and glucocorticoids. LY-CoV555 (at a dose of 7000 mg) or placebo was administered as a single intravenous infusion over a 1-hour period. The primary outcome was a sustained recovery during a 90-day period, as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. An interim futility assessment was performed on the basis of a seven-category ordinal scale for pulmonary function on day 5. RESULTS: On October 26, 2020, the data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping enrollment for futility after 314 patients (163 in the LY-CoV555 group and 151 in the placebo group) had undergone randomization and infusion. The median interval since the onset of symptoms was 7 days (interquartile range, 5 to 9). At day 5, a total of 81 patients (50%) in the LY-CoV555 group and 81 (54%) in the placebo group were in one of the two most favorable categories of the pulmonary outcome. Across the seven categories, the odds ratio of being in a more favorable category in the LY-CoV555 group than in the placebo group was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56 to 1.29; P = 0.45). The percentage of patients with the primary safety outcome (a composite of death, serious adverse events, or clinical grade 3 or 4 adverse events through day 5) was similar in the LY-CoV555 group and the placebo group (19% and 14%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.56; 95% CI, 0.78 to 3.10; P = 0.20). The rate ratio for a sustained recovery was 1.06 (95% CI, 0.77 to 1.47). CONCLUSIONS: Monoclonal antibody LY-CoV555, when coadministered with remdesivir, did not demonstrate efficacy among hospitalized patients who had Covid-19 without end-organ failure. (Funded by Operation Warp Speed and others; TICO ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04501978.).

Anti-influenza hyperimmune intravenous immunoglobulin for adults with influenza A or B infection (FLU-IVIG): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Since the 1918 influenza pandemic, non-randomised studies and small clinical trials have suggested that convalescent plasma or anti-influenza hyperimmune intravenous immunoglobulin (hIVIG) might have clinical benefit for patients with influenza infection, but definitive data do not exist. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of hIVIG in a randomised controlled trial. METHODS: This randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was planned for 45 hospitals in Argentina, Australia, Denmark, Greece, Mexico, Spain, Thailand, UK, and the USA over five influenza seasons from 2013-14 to 2017-18. Adults (≥18 years of age) were admitted for hospital treatment with laboratory-confirmed influenza A or B infection and were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive standard care plus either a single 500-mL infusion of high-titre hIVIG (0·25 g/kg bodyweight, 24·75 g maximum; hIVIG group) or saline placebo (placebo group). Eligible patients had a National Early Warning score of 2 points or greater at the time of screening and their symptoms began no more than 7 days before randomisation. Pregnant and breastfeeding women were excluded, as well as any patients for whom the treatment would present a health risk. Separate randomisation schedules were generated for each participating clinical site using permuted block randomisation. Treatment assignments were obtained using a web-based application by the site pharmacist who then masked the solution for infusion. Patients and investigators were masked to study treatment. The primary endpoint was a six-category ordinal outcome of clinical status at day 7, ranging in severity from death to resumption of normal activities after discharge. The choice of day 7 was based on haemagglutination inhibition titres from a pilot study. It was analysed with a proportional odds model, using all six categories to estimate a common odds ratio (OR). An OR greater than 1 indicated that, for a given category, patients in the hIVIG group were more likely to be in a better category than those in the placebo group. Prespecified primary analyses for safety and efficacy were based on patients who received an infusion and for whom eligibility could be confirmed. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02287467. FINDINGS: 313 patients were enrolled in 34 sites between Dec 11, 2014, and May 28, 2018. We also used data from 16 patients enrolled at seven of the 34 sites during the pilot study between Jan 15, 2014, and April 10, 2014. 168 patients were randomly assigned to the hIVIG group and 161 to the placebo group. 21 patients were excluded (12 from the hIVIG group and 9 from the placebo group) because they did not receive an infusion or their eligibility could not be confirmed. Thus, 308 were included in the primary analysis. hIVIG treatment produced a robust rise in haemagglutination inhibition titres against influenza A and smaller rises in influenza B titres. Based on the proportional odds model, the OR on day 7 was 1·25 (95% CI 0·79-1·97; p=0·33). In subgroup analyses for the primary outcome, the OR in patients with influenza A was 0·94 (0·55-1·59) and was 3·19 (1·21-8·42) for those with influenza B (interaction p=0·023). Through 28 days of follow-up, 47 (30%) of 156 patients in the hIVIG group and in 45 (30%) of 152 patients in the placebo group had the composite safety outcome of death, a serious adverse event, or a grade 3 or 4 adverse event (hazard ratio [HR] 1·06, 95% CI 0·70-1·60; p=0·79). Six (4%) patients in the hIVIG group and five (3%) in the placebo group died, but these deaths were not necessarily related to treatment. INTERPRETATION: When administered alongside standard care (most commonly oseltamivir), hIVIG was not superior to placebo for adults hospitalised with influenza infection. By contrast with our prespecified subgroup hypothesis that hIVIG would result in more favourable responses in patients with influenza A than B, we found the opposite effect. The clinical benefit of hIVIG for patients with influenza B is supported by antibody affinity analyses, but confirmation is warranted. FUNDING: NIAID and NIH. Partial support was provided by the Medical Research Council (MRC_UU_12023/23) and the Danish National Research Foundation.

Anti-Influenza Hyperimmune Immunoglobulin Enhances Fc-Functional Antibody Immunity During Human Influenza Infection.

Background: New treatments for severe influenza are needed. Passive transfer of influenza-specific hyperimmune pooled immunoglobulin (Flu-IVIG) boosts neutralizing antibody responses to past strains in influenza-infected subjects. The effect of Flu-IVIG on antibodies with Fc-mediated functions, which may target diverse influenza strains, is unclear. Methods: We studied the capacity of Flu-IVIG, relative to standard IVIG, to bind to Fcγ receptors and mediate antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity in vitro. The effect of Flu-IVIG infusion, compared to placebo infusion, was examined in serial plasma samples from 24 subjects with confirmed influenza infection in the INSIGHT FLU005 pilot study. Results: Flu-IVIG contains higher concentrations of Fc-functional antibodies than IVIG against a diverse range of influenza hemagglutinins. Following infusion of Flu-IVIG into influenza-infected subjects, a transient increase in Fc-functional antibodies was present for 1-3 days against infecting and noninfecting strains of influenza. Conclusions: Flu-IVIG contains antibodies with Fc-mediated functions against influenza virus, and passive transfer of Flu-IVIG increases anti-influenza Fc-functional antibodies in the plasma of influenza-infected subjects. Enhancement of Fc-functional antibodies to a diverse range of influenza strains suggests that Flu-IVIG infusion could prove useful in the context of novel influenza virus infections, when there may be minimal or no neutralizing antibodies in the Flu-IVIG preparation.

Using Clinical Research Networks to Assess Severity of an Emerging Influenza Pandemic.

Background: Early clinical severity assessments during the 2009 influenza A H1N1 pandemic (pH1N1) overestimated clinical severity due to selection bias and other factors. We retrospectively investigated how to use data from the International Network for Strategic Initiatives in Global HIV Trials, a global clinical influenza research network, to make more accurate case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates early in a future pandemic, an essential part of pandemic response. Methods: We estimated the CFR of medically attended influenza (CFRMA) as the product of probability of hospitalization given confirmed outpatient influenza and the probability of death given hospitalization with confirmed influenza for the pandemic (2009-2011) and post-pandemic (2012-2015) periods. We used literature survey results on health-seeking behavior to convert that estimate to CFR among all infected persons (CFRAR). Results: During the pandemic period, 5.0% (3.1%-6.9%) of 561 pH1N1-positive outpatients were hospitalized. Of 282 pH1N1-positive inpatients, 8.5% (5.7%-12.6%) died. CFRMA for pH1N1 was 0.4% (0.2%-0.6%) in the pandemic period 2009-2011 but declined 5-fold in young adults during the post-pandemic period compared to the level of seasonal influenza in the post-pandemic period 2012-2015. CFR for influenza-negative patients did not change over time. We estimated the 2009 pandemic CFRAR to be 0.025%, 16-fold lower than CFRMA. Conclusions: Data from a clinical research network yielded accurate pandemic severity estimates, including increased severity among younger people. Going forward, clinical research networks with a global presence and standardized protocols would substantially aid rapid assessment of clinical severity. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT01056354 and NCT01056185

How to construct an optimal interim report: What the data monitoring committee does and doesn't need to know.

BACKGROUND: Data monitoring committees for randomized clinical trials have the responsibility of safeguarding interests of trial participants. To do so, the data monitoring committee must receive reports on safety and efficacy to assess risk/benefit and on trial conduct to ensure that the study can achieve its goals. This article outlines the key components of reports to the data monitoring committee and the important role of the unblinded statistician in preparing those reports. METHODS: Most data monitoring committee meetings include open and closed sessions. For each session, there is a report of interim results. The open session is attended by the sponsor and lead investigators, including the statistician(s) responsible for the trial design. These investigators are blinded to the interim treatment comparisons. The closed session is attended by the data monitoring committee members and by the statistician(s) who prepared the closed report. These individuals are unblinded to interim treatment comparisons and therefore are not involved in study design changes. The optimal content of data monitoring committee reports and qualifications of the unblinded statistician(s) are discussed. REPORTS: Open reports should include responses to data monitoring committee recommendations, a synopsis of the protocol, a review of the protocol history and amendments, and information on enrollment, baseline characteristics, completeness of follow-up, and data quality. The open report is also a vehicle through which the sponsor and investigators should inform the data monitoring committee of relevant external information. Data in the open report are pooled over the treatment groups. The open report should not include data summaries by treatment group. The closed report should include a written summary with references to key tables and figures and methods used to prepare them. Tables and figures should summarize baseline characteristics, follow-up completeness, treatment adherence, and major safety and efficacy outcomes by treatment group. Text summaries should accompany the tables and figures. The data monitoring committee monitoring history (e.g. treatment differences at previous meetings) should be summarized. The unblinded statistician preparing the closed report should be familiar with the protocol and data collection plan and be capable of customizing the report to the current stage of the trial. This includes anticipating questions that may arise during the data monitoring committee review and pro-actively including data summaries to address these questions. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable variation in the quality of open and closed data monitoring committee reports. Open and closed data monitoring committee reports should be concise, up to date, and informative. To achieve this, unblinded statisticians responsible for preparing closed data monitoring committee reports should be familiar with the statistical methods, the trial protocol, and the data collection plan. They should be capable of anticipating questions from the data monitoring committee and responding to requests for additional analyses.

Increased Indoleamine-2,3-Dioxygenase Activity Is Associated With Poor Clinical Outcome in Adults Hospitalized With Influenza in the INSIGHT FLU003Plus Study.

BACKGROUND: Indoleamine-2,3-dioxygenase (IDO) mediated tryptophan (TRP) depletion has antimicrobial and immuno-regulatory effects. Increased kynurenine (KYN)-to-TRP (KT) ratios, reflecting increased IDO activity, have been associated with poorer outcomes from several infections. METHODS: We performed a case-control (1:2; age and sex matched) analysis of adults hospitalized with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 with protocol-defined disease progression (died/transferred to ICU/mechanical ventilation) after enrollment (cases) or survived without progression (controls) over 60 days of follow-up. Conditional logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between baseline KT ratio and other metabolites and disease progression. RESULTS: We included 32 cases and 64 controls with a median age of 52 years; 41% were female, and the median durations of influenza symptoms prior to hospitalization were 8 and 6 days for cases and controls, respectively (P = .04). Median baseline KT ratios were 2-fold higher in cases (0.24 mM/M; IQR, 0.13-0.40) than controls (0.12; IQR, 0.09-0.17; P ≤ .001). When divided into tertiles, 59% of cases vs 20% of controls had KT ratios in the highest tertile (0.21-0.84 mM/M). When adjusted for symptom duration, the odds ratio for disease progression for those in the highest vs lowest tertiles of KT ratio was 9.94 (95% CI, 2.25-43.90). CONCLUSIONS: High KT ratio was associated with poor outcome in adults hospitalized with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. The clinical utility of this biomarker in this setting merits further exploration. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01056185.

Comparison of the Outcomes of Individuals With Medically Attended Influenza A and B Virus Infections Enrolled in 2 International Cohort Studies Over a 6-Year Period: 2009-2015.

BACKGROUND: Outcome data from prospective follow-up studies comparing infections with different influenza virus types/subtypes are limited. METHODS: Demographic, clinical characteristics and follow-up outcomes for adults with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), or B virus infections were compared in 2 prospective cohorts enrolled globally from 2009 through 2015. Logistic regression was used to compare outcomes among influenza virus type/subtypes. RESULTS: Of 3952 outpatients, 1290 (32.6%) had A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection, 1857 (47.0%) had A(H3N2), and 805 (20.4%) had influenza B. Of 1398 inpatients, 641 (45.8%) had A(H1N1)pdm09, 532 (38.1%) had A(H3N2), and 225 (16.1%) had influenza B. Outpatients with A(H1N1)pdm09 were younger with fewer comorbidities and were more likely to be hospitalized during the 14-day follow-up (3.3%) than influenza B (2.2%) or A(H3N2) (0.7%; P < .0001). Hospitalized patients with A(H1N1)pdm09 (20.3%) were more likely to be enrolled from intensive care units (ICUs) than those with A(H3N2) (11.3%) or B (9.8%; P < .0001). However, 60-day follow-up of discharged inpatients showed no difference in disease progression (P = .32) or all-cause mortality (P = .30) among influenza types/subtypes. These findings were consistent after covariate adjustment, in sensitivity analyses, and for subgroups defined by age, enrollment location, and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Outpatients infected with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 or influenza B were more likely to be hospitalized than those with A(H3N2). Hospitalized patients infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 were younger and more likely to have severe disease at study entry (measured by ICU enrollment), but did not have worse 60-day outcomes.

Relevance of Interleukin-6 and D-Dimer for Serious Non-AIDS Morbidity and Death among HIV-Positive Adults on Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Despite effective antiretroviral treatment (ART), HIV-positive individuals are at increased risk of serious non-AIDS conditions (cardiovascular, liver and renal disease, and cancers), perhaps due in part to ongoing inflammation and/or coagulation. To estimate the potential risk reduction in serious non-AIDS conditions or death from any cause that might be achieved with treatments that reduce inflammation and/or coagulation, we examined associations of interleukin-6 (IL-6), D-dimer, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) levels with serious non-AIDS conditions or death in 3 large cohorts. METHODS: In HIV-positive adults on suppressive ART, associations of IL-6, D-dimer, and hsCRP levels at study entry with serious non-AIDS conditions or death were studied using Cox regression. Hazard ratios (HR) adjusted for age, gender, study, and regression dilution bias (due to within-person biomarker variability) were used to predict risk reductions in serious non-AIDS conditions or death associated with lower "usual" levels of IL-6 and D-dimer. RESULTS: Over 4.9 years of mean follow-up, 260 of the 3766 participants experienced serious non-AIDS conditions or death. IL-6, D-dimer and hsCRP were each individually associated with risk of serious non-AIDS conditions or death, HR = 1.45 (95% CI: 1.30 to 1.63), 1.28 (95% CI: 1.14 to 1.44), and 1.17 (95% CI: 1.09 to 1.26) per 2x higher biomarker levels, respectively. In joint models, IL-6 and D-dimer were independently associated with serious non-AIDS conditions or death, with consistent results across the 3 cohorts and across serious non-AIDS event types. The association of IL-6 and D-dimer with serious non-AIDS conditions or death was graded and persisted throughout follow-up. For 25% lower "usual" IL-6 and D-dimer levels, the joint biomarker model estimates a 37% reduction (95% CI: 28 to 46%) in the risk of serious non-AIDS conditions or death if the relationship is causal. CONCLUSIONS: Both IL-6 and D-dimer are independently associated with serious non-AIDS conditions or death among HIV-positive adults with suppressed virus. This suggests that treatments that reduce IL-6 and D-dimer levels might substantially decrease morbidity and mortality in patients on suppressive ART. Clinical trials are needed to test this hypothesis.

Circulating microRNAs in Sera Correlate with Soluble Biomarkers of Immune Activation but Do Not Predict Mortality in ART Treated Individuals with HIV-1 Infection: A Case Control Study.

INTRODUCTION: The use of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) has dramatically reduced HIV-1 associated morbidity and mortality. However, HIV-1 infected individuals have increased rates of morbidity and mortality compared to the non-HIV-1 infected population and this appears to be related to end-organ diseases collectively referred to as Serious Non-AIDS Events (SNAEs). Circulating miRNAs are reported as promising biomarkers for a number of human disease conditions including those that constitute SNAEs. Our study sought to investigate the potential of selected miRNAs in predicting mortality in HIV-1 infected ART treated individuals. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A set of miRNAs was chosen based on published associations with human disease conditions that constitute SNAEs. This case: control study compared 126 cases (individuals who died whilst on therapy), and 247 matched controls (individuals who remained alive). Cases and controls were ART treated participants of two pivotal HIV-1 trials. The relative abundance of each miRNA in serum was measured, by RTqPCR. Associations with mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular and malignancy) were assessed by logistic regression analysis. Correlations between miRNAs and CD4+ T cell count, hs-CRP, IL-6 and D-dimer were also assessed. RESULTS: None of the selected miRNAs was associated with all-cause, cardiovascular or malignancy mortality. The levels of three miRNAs (miRs -21, -122 and -200a) correlated with IL-6 while miR-21 also correlated with D-dimer. Additionally, the abundance of miRs -31, -150 and -223, correlated with baseline CD4+ T cell count while the same three miRNAs plus miR-145 correlated with nadir CD4+ T cell count. DISCUSSION: No associations with mortality were found with any circulating miRNA studied. These results cast doubt onto the effectiveness of circulating miRNA as early predictors of mortality or the major underlying diseases that contribute to mortality in participants treated for HIV-1 infection.

Development and validation of a risk score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection using prospective cohort data from the D:A:D study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0-4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥ 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. CONCLUSIONS: Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.

Outcomes of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection: results from two international cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Data from prospectively planned cohort studies on risk of major clinical outcomes and prognostic factors for patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus are limited. In 2009, in order to assess outcomes and evaluate risk factors for progression of illness, two cohort studies were initiated: FLU 002 in outpatients and FLU 003 in hospitalized patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between October 2009 and December 2012, adults with influenza-like illness (ILI) were enrolled; outpatients were followed for 14 days and inpatients for 60 days. Disease progression was defined as hospitalization and/or death for outpatients, and hospitalization for >28 days, transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) if enrolled from general ward, and/or death for inpatients. Infection was confirmed by RT-PCR. 590 FLU 002 and 392 FLU 003 patients with influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 were enrolled from 81 sites in 17 countries at 2 days (IQR 1-3) and 6 days (IQR 4-10) following ILI onset, respectively. Disease progression was experienced by 29 (1 death) outpatients (5.1%; 95% CI: 3.4-7.2%) and 80 inpatients [death (32), hospitalization >28 days (43) or ICU transfer (20)] (21.6%; 95% CI: 17.5-26.2%). Disease progression (death) for hospitalized patients was 53.1% (26.6%) and 12.8% (3.8%), respectively, for those enrolled in the ICU and general ward. In pooled analyses for both studies, predictors of disease progression were age, longer duration of symptoms at enrollment and immunosuppression. Patients hospitalized during the pandemic period had a poorer prognosis than in subsequent seasons. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, particularly when requiring hospital admission, are at high risk for disease progression, especially if they are older, immunodeficient, or admitted late in infection. These data reinforce the need for international trials of novel treatment strategies for influenza infection and serve as a reminder of the need to monitor the severity of seasonal and pandemic influenza epidemics globally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: FLU 002--NCT01056354, FLU 003--NCT01056185.

Adjudicated morbidity and mortality outcomes by age among individuals with HIV infection on suppressive antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Non-AIDS conditions such as cardiovascular disease and non-AIDS defining cancers dominate causes of morbidity and mortality among persons with HIV on suppressive combination antiretroviral therapy. Accurate estimates of disease incidence and of risk factors for these conditions are important in planning preventative efforts. METHODS: With use of medical records, serious non-AIDS events, AIDS events, and causes of death were adjudicated using pre-specified criteria by an Endpoint Review Committee in two large international trials. Rates of serious non-AIDS which include cardiovascular disease, end-stage renal disease, decompensated liver disease, and non-AIDS cancer, and other serious (grade 4) adverse events were determined, overall and by age, over a median follow-up of 4.3 years for 3,570 participants with CD4+ cell count ≥300 cells/mm³ who were taking antiretroviral therapy and had an HIV RNA level ≤500 copies/mL. Cox models were used to examine the effect of age and other baseline factors on risk of a composite outcome of all-cause mortality, AIDS, or serious non-AIDS. RESULTS: Five-year Kaplan-Meier estimates of the composite outcome, overall and by age were 8.3% (overall), 3.6% (<40), 8.7% (40-49) and 16.1% (≥50), respectively (p<0.001). In addition to age, smoking and higher levels of interleukin-6 and D-dimer were significant predictors of the composite outcome. The composite outcome was dominated by serious non-AIDS events (overall 65% of 277 participants with a composite event). Most serious non-AIDS events were due to cardiovascular disease and non-AIDS cancers. CONCLUSIONS: To date, few large studies have carefully collected data on serious non-AIDS outcomes. Thus, reliable estimates of event rates are scarce. Data cited here, from a geographically diverse cohort, will be useful for planning studies of interventions aimed at reducing rates of serious non-AIDS events among people with HIV.

Predicting risk of cancer during HIV infection: the role of inflammatory and coagulation biomarkers.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between inflammatory [interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP)] and coagulation (D-dimer) biomarkers and cancer risk during HIV infection. DESIGN: A prospective cohort. METHODS: HIV-infected patients on continuous antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the control arms of three randomized trials (N=5023) were included in an analysis of predictors of cancer (any type, infection-related or infection-unrelated). Hazard ratios for IL-6, CRP and D-dimer levels (log2-transformed) were calculated using Cox models stratified by trial and adjusted for demographics and CD4+ cell counts and adjusted also for all biomarkers simultaneously. To assess the possibility that biomarker levels were elevated at entry due to undiagnosed cancer, analyses were repeated excluding early cancer events (i.e. diagnosed during first 2 years of follow-up). RESULTS: During approximately 24,000 person-years of follow-up (PYFU), 172 patients developed cancer (70 infection-related; 102 infection-unrelated). The risk of developing cancer was associated with higher levels (per doubling) of IL-6 (hazard ratio 1.38, P<0.001), CRP (hazard ratio 1.16, P=0.001) and D-dimer (hazard ratio 1.17, P=0.03). However, only IL-6 (hazard ratio 1.29, P=0.003) remained associated with cancer risk when all biomarkers were considered simultaneously. Results for infection-related and infection-unrelated cancers were similar to results for any cancer. Hazard ratios excluding 69 early cancer events were 1.31 (P=0.007), 1.14 (P=0.02) and 1.07 (P=0.49) for IL-6, CRP and D-dimer, respectively. CONCLUSION: Activated inflammation and coagulation pathways are associated with increased cancer risk during HIV infection. This association was stronger for IL-6 and persisted after excluding early cancer. Trials of interventions may be warranted to assess whether cancer risk can be reduced by lowering IL-6 levels in HIV-positive individuals.